Knowledge: USA doesn't need more prisons

 

  USA doesn't need more prisons

Yet the Fascist Budget Bill would increase prisons a LOT.

MANY WILL BE PRIVATE PRISONS THAT ENRICH THEIR OWNERS AND USUALLY HAVE DEPLORABLE CONDITIONS. GOOGLE IT

Mass incarceration:

https://www.prisonpolicy.org/global/2024.html 

Reports regarding potential spending increases in the 2025 budget related to the proposed Trump administration's priorities, particularly in the area of homeland security and related immigration enforcement, indicate a significant focus on increased detention and enforcement operations. 

Specifically, the following details have been reported regarding potential spending increases:

• Immigration Detention: A proposed House Republican budget bill includes $45 billion for new and expanded immigrant detention centers, which would significantly increase the capacity for detaining individuals. This would nearly quadruple ICE's detention budget on an annualized basis, with one analyst noting it would be nearly 50% larger than the entire federal prison system's annual budget. It is estimated this could be enough to detain 100,000 people at a time, or possibly more.
• ICE Enforcement and Personnel: The House Judiciary Committee recommendations include $27 billion toward ICE's enforcement and deportation operations. Additionally, there's a proposed $8 billion for hiring new ICE personnel, aiming for an increase of 10,000 personnel by 2029. One report mentions $75 billion in supplemental funding for expanding ICE enforcement operations inside the U.S. over the next four years, including $10 billion for hiring thousands of agents.
• Refugee Resettlement: There is also a proposed $3 billion for the Office of Refugee Resettlement to hold unaccompanied migrant children. 

It is important to note that these are proposed budget items and may change during the legislative process. Additionally, the funding increases described primarily relate to immigrant detention facilities overseen by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, not the federal Bureau of Prisons which handles traditional federal prisons. 

These graphics are cringe-worth on many levels.

AI summary of budget Bill's proposals

A recent budget bill includes significant increases in spending for correctional facilities and personnel, with a focus on expanding detention capacity and enforcement. Specifically, a House reconciliation bill allocates billions to ICE for hiring new agents and increasing detention space, potentially dwarfing the budget of the entire federal prison system. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Increased ICE Detention Capacity:

  The House reconciliation bill allocates a substantial amount of funding to increase immigration detention centers, including family detention facilities, and to hire additional ICE officers. 
• Federal Prison Expansion:

  A separate initiative aims to create 20,000 new prison places through building new wings, refurbishing existing space, and potentially overhauling the prison regime. 

  
  
• Concerns about Accountability and Reform:

  While some states are pursuing prison reform measures, such as expanded oversight and studies on deaths in custody, there are concerns about whether these measures will be effective in addressing systemic issues like inadequate mental health care and safety concerns. 
• Funding for ICE Enforcement:

  The budget reconciliation bill also includes funding for increased prosecutions of immigration-related offenses and expanded federal detention space. 

Brief, Tax Policy

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Summary: We estimate that incorporating the Trump administration’s major tax proposals into the FY2025 House budget reconciliation would require that the provisions mostly sunset by December 31, 2033. Even so, primary deficits would increase by $5.1 trillion before economic effects and by $4.9 trillion after modest, positive economic effects. Both primary deficit estimates are larger than the cap of $2.8 trillion allowed in budget reconciliation. High-income households gain the most while lower-income households gain less or even lose, depending on how the spending cuts are distributed.

Key Points

• The FY2025 House budget reconciliation includes budget reconciliation instructions calling for $1.7 trillion in net spending cuts and $4.5 trillion in net tax cuts (with room for adjustments), allowing for a $2.8 trillion increase in primary deficits over the 10-year budget window from FY2025 to FY2034. Under budget reconciliation, primary deficits after FY2034 cannot increase.

• If the Trump administration’s tax proposals were adopted by the House and enacted on a permanent basis, primary deficits over a 10-year period would increase by $6 trillion. Moreover, annual primary deficits would be around $700 billion higher in the years following 2034 and growing thereafter. To satisfy budget reconciliation rules, most tax cuts would, therefore, need to sunset (expire) by December 31, 2033.

• With a sunset after calendar year 2033, we estimate that the combined spending and tax proposals put forward by the Trump administration would increase 10-year primary deficits by $5.1 trillion before accounting for economic growth effects and by $4.9 trillion after growth effects.

• With a sunset after calendar year 2033, GDP modestly increases by the end of the 10-year budget window, between 0.3 and 0.4 percent, depending on how the $1.7 trillion in net spending cuts are allocated. Capital formation increases by 1 percent and wages increase between 0.6 and 0.7 percent. Under permanence, the signs reverse: GDP falls between 0.3 and 0.5 percent by year 10, wages fall by 0.6 and 0.7, as does capital.

• On a conventional basis in 2026, the first 80 percent of the income distribution receives about 29 percent of the total value of the proposed tax cuts while the top 10 percent of the income distribution receives about 56 percent of the value. (Under current law, the top 10 percent of the income distribution pays about 70 percent of all federal taxes). Even with economic growth, lower income households are worse off if mandatory spending cuts, still to be decided under budget reconciliation, are allocated to programs like Medicaid and SNAP.

• In Appendix A, we separately estimate that a scaled-back version of the Trump administration tax proposals would increase 10-year primary deficits by $3.6 trillion before economic effects, including required cost savings. This value is closer to, but still exceeds, the required target of $2.8 trillion.

• A companion brief reports a wide range of different options for raising revenue from tariffs. To the extent that tariffs are implemented using Presidential authorities, it is unlikely that the concomitant revenue would be counted as an offset for budget reconciliation.

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The FY2025 House Budget reconciliation and Trump Administration Tax Proposals Budgetary, Economic, and Distributional Effects

Introduction

On February 25, the House of Representatives approved a budget resolution for fiscal year (FY) 2025 that sets the stage for new tax-and-spending legislation that can bypass the Senate’s 60-vote threshold and pass with a simple majority. While the budget resolution does not include specific changes to spending and taxes, it specifies which House committees should increase or decrease deficits in reconciliation legislation and by how much. These committees are responsible for identifying specific tax and spending changes within their jurisdictions to achieve these deficit targets.

In addition, the Trump administration and House Republican leadership have put forward a number of tax proposals, which include extension and restoration of expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), new tax cuts for households who receive Social Security benefits, no taxes on tipped income or overtime pay, removal of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, and changes to the tax treatment of carried interest.

Table 1 summarizes the reconciliation instructions in the FY2025 House budget resolution. The topline instructions allow for up to $2.8 trillion in primary deficit increases over the 2025-2034 budget window, calling for $2 trillion in mandatory spending cuts, $300 billion in mandatory spending increases, and $4.5 trillion in net tax cuts.

Table 1: Changes in 10-Year Deficits Allowed Under the FY 2025 House Budget Reconciliation Instructions

Billions of dollars

Committee		Increase or decrease (-) in deficits, 2025-2034
Decreases in Mandatory Spending		-2,002
	Agriculture	-230
	Education and Workforce	-330
	Energy and Commerce	-880
	Financial Services	-1
	Natural Resources	-1
	Oversight and Government Reform	-50
	Transportation and Infrastructure	-10
	Unspecified committee	-500
Increases in Mandatory Spending		300
	Armed Services	100
	Homeland Security	90
	Judiciary	110
Decrease in Tax Revenues: Ways and Means		4,500
Total allowed increase in the primary deficit		2,798

Notes: The targets for each committee are bounds; positive amounts are “maximum deficit increases” and negative amounts are “minimum deficit reductions.”
Source: House Budget Committee.